TAS

You'd better be

BEARISH                                                         SITTING DUCK                                 BULLISH

Adler Real Estate

We sincerely feel

BEARISH                                                         as a SITTING DUCK                                 BULLISH

on the markets

Sartorius

You'd better be

BEARISH                                                         SITTING DUCK                                 BULLISH

Ellie Mae

You'd better be

BEARISH                                                         SITTING DUCK                                 BULLISH

Raysearch Laboratories

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

Picanol

You'd better be

BEARISH                                                          A SITTING DUCK                                 BULLISH

What's wrong with Stedim ?

We now feel bearish about DIM.PA

For 50% Stedim does not meet our required conditions, short and long term,  to be one of our favorites. 

Probi

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

ETF: from a novice's point of view

My broker (Bolero.be) keeps telling me how profitable investments in ETF's are for Joe Average.
So, finely, we started to travel on thin ice.

Don't expect anything spectacular to start. Along the way we will try to implement our stock-picking system on these sci-fi way of investing.

And don't let anyone tell you there is no more risk involved dealing stocks.

Our personal robot pointed out TNA as the better pick. We are still rather sceptical: this ETF feels like being a bit speculative and is definitely too expensive in our eyes.

Under caution we consider TNA as follows:

The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull and Bear 3x Shares seek the daily results of 300% of the performance of the Russell 2000® Index.

Leveraged ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day.

ISIN: US25459W8477

Fair Value: $103.00
Discount: N/A

Willdan Group

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

James Cropper

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

Plastique du Val de Loire

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

Patrick

You'd better be

selling                                                          a sitting duck                                 buying

Xilam animation

XIL.PA (ISIN: FR0004034072)

Savaria Corporation is a Canada-based company, which offers a range of stairlifts, platform lifts, and residential and commercial elevators. The Company operates through two segments: Accessibility and Adapted Vehicles.

Market: Toronto

http://www.xilam.com

Fair value: 21.75€

Discount: 70%

Average yearly return: 46%

Yield: N/A

Outperformer

January 5, 2017

With an increase of 406%, the shares of Xilam Animation (Paris:XIL) posted the largest increase in the CAC All Tradable index in 2016, reaching a market capitalization of 44 million euros as at December 31 2016.

The market cap, which was very low up until mid-2016, did not reflect the upturn in financial fundamentals or the significant potential for development.

The corporate communication regarding the transformation of Xilam's business model, that started last April, brought about this turnaround in the stock market price which, for now, is merely a recovery.

Do you still buy stocks, returning less than 30% year after year ?

We re-arranged our definitions on stock-performing:

Time frame: stocks have to perform during 5 consecutive years at least better than:

Underperformer: between 0% and 10%
Marketperformer: between 11% and 31%
Outperformer: between 32% and 63%
TOP performer: better than 64% after 1, 2, 3 and 5 year on average

We don't buy a stock which average return was less than 32% after 1, 2, 3 and 5 years.
Don't worry, there are more than enough stocks complying with these conditions.

Average turn around of stocks in our portfolio: 9 months

Bet-at-home

ACX.DE (DE000A0DNAY5)

bet-at-home.com AG is a Germany-based sporting bookmaker that specializes in the European online gambling market. The Company divides its business activities into the two segments eGaming, which includes casino games, dogs betting and poker games; as well as Sports Betting.

Market: Frankfurt

http://www.bet-at-home.ag/

Fair value: 84 €

Discount: N/A
Average yearly return: 50%
Yield: 7%
Outperformer

November 7, 2016
bet-at-home.com 9-month gross betting and gaming revenue up 14.7 pct at 100.4 mln euros

Nemetscheck

NEM.DE (DE0006452907)

Nemetschek AG is a Germany-based holding company engaged in the provision of software solutions for architecture and construction industries, including architects, structural designers, civil and specialist engineers, as well as for technical facility management and commercial property management, as well as visualization software for architecture, film and advertising.

Market: Frankfurt

https://www.nemetschek.com/

Fair value: 57 €
Discount: 8%
Average yearly return: 52%
Yield: 1.0%
Outperformer

Januari 4, 2017Nemetschek has successfully concluded the acquisition of dRofus AS, headquartered in Oslo, Norway. In total 100 percent of dRofus shares have been transferred to the Nemetschek Group.

Les Nouveaux Constructeurs

LNC.PA (FR0004023208)

Les Nouveaux Constructeurs SA is a France-based real estate development company that specializes in mid-range housing projects. The Company focuses on the development of new housing in France, Germany and Spain. The Company is present in France in cities, such as Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Cannes, Nice, Montpellier and Toulouse. In Germany, the Company’s operations are located in Munich metropolitan area. In Spain, the Company provides housing development services in Madrid and Barcelona.

Market: Euronext Paris

www.lesnouveauxconstructeurs.fr

Fair value: 42 €

Discount: 6%
Average yearly return: 47%
Yield: 2.03%
Outperformer

Savaria

SIS.TO (ISIN: CA8051121090)

Savaria Corporation is a Canada-based company, which offers a range of stairlifts, platform lifts, and residential and commercial elevators. The Company operates through two segments: Accessibility and Adapted Vehicles.

Market: Toronto

https://savaria.com/home

Fair value: CAD 13.00

Discount: 20%

Average yearly return: 34%

Yield: 2.6%

Outperformer

November 21, 2016
Savaria provides forecasts for 2017
* Savaria Corp sees 2017 revenue of $139 million, an increase of 17% over projected 2016 result of $119 million
* Savaria Corp sees 2017 ebitda between $25 and $26 million
* FY2017 revenue view c$147.3 million

My 2016 runners

15 imperishable stocks which were running  20%+ in 2016

PROBI +236%
NVIDIA CORPORATION +223%
MBB INDUSTRIES +154%
UMANIS +146%
LNC +105%
SAVARIA CORPORATION +97%
PLASTIQ.VAL LOIRE +95%
MGP INGREDIENTS +92%
CHERRYFORETAGEN -B- +87%
HESKA +85%
PATRICK +75%
BET-AT-HOME.COM +65%
ELLIE MAE +38%
PARAGON +30%
NEMETSCHEK +21%

Do not rush to buy any of them. Stocks are actually still 15% too expensive.